Aviation360 MEA

Over the next 20 years, the aviation sector is expected to see a demand for 10,500 new, up to 150-seat aircraft deliveries, with a market value of $640 billion. 

Of all new deliveries, 54% will go toward replacing aged aircraft, while 46% will be allocated to expanding markets, according to the Market Outlook released by Embraer at the Farnborough International Airshow, UK.

The report forecasts that global passenger traffic will grow at an average annual rate of 4 percent between 2024 and 2043. 

In the next two decades, Asia Pacific, including China, will show the strongest growth with revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) increasing 5 percent annually. Second in line comes Latin America at 4.9 percent, Africa at 4.4 percent, and the Middle East also at 4.4 percent.

However, Europe, including CIS, is expected to see an RPK growth of 3.3 percent followed by North America at 2.4 percent. 

Smaller aircraft expected to drive global demand

Global demand will be driven by smaller aircraft deliveries; by 2043, orders for 8,470 jets with a maximum capacity of 150 seats are expected. Of these, 49% will be used to replace outdated aircraft and 51% will promote market expansion.

The general slowing rise in travel demand, short-haul preference in traffic patterns over long-haul, and the growing desire for efficiency, flexibility, and connectivity are all contributing factors to the trend toward smaller aircraft. The trend also shows how new technologies are enabling fleets and networks to move to a decarbonized industry.

A mixed fleet with some aircraft up to 150 seats is preferred by the aviation industry due to the requirement for improved fleet adaptability and more effective use of assets. Airlines highlight the need to balance capacity with demand in order to maximise profitability in an uncertain economic environment.

Domestic networks in the Middle East market

Though the Middle East area’s profile is mostly long-haul international, shorter-haul domestic and intra-regional demand is growing and currently makes up 54% of all seat capacity in the region.

The top four seat producers are Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, although their market structures differ significantly. Saudi Arabian and Turkish airlines both have robust domestic and intraregional networks. Due to a lack of domestic networks, airlines in the UAE and Qatar primarily service long-haul and intercontinental markets.

However, the majority of the region’s fleet still comprises big planes, which make it difficult to service emerging and tiny markets. Sub-150 seat aircraft can facilitate the creation of new point-to-point routes, alternative hubs, and incentives for cargo and trade.