IATA Projects SAF Production to Triple in 2024, Calls for More Diversification

Dubai – In a recent press release the International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced that the projected tripling of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production in 2024 to 1.9 billion liters (1.5 million tonnes) is on track. This increase would meet 0.53% of aviation’s fuel needs in 2024. To further accelerate SAF use, several policy measures by governments are needed.

“SAF is crucial, providing about 65% of the mitigation needed for airlines to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. The expected tripling of SAF production in 2024 from 2023 is encouraging. We have a long way to go, but the direction of exponential increases is becoming clear,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

Renewable Fuel Production and SAF

SAF is a part of the broader renewable fuel production, which spans many industries. Increasing renewable fuel production is essential to boost SAF’s potential. By 2030, around 140 renewable fuel projects capable of producing SAF are expected to be operational. If realized, total renewable fuel production capacity could reach 51 million tonnes by 2030, with capacity spread across almost all regions.

The potential could exceed this estimate as investor interest in SAF grows. Investment announcements as late as 2027 could lead to production by 2030, although not all projects will reach final investment decisions.

Through the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), governments have set a goal to achieve a 5% CO2 emissions reduction for international aviation from SAF by 2030. To meet this goal, about 27% of all expected renewable fuel production capacity by 2030 needs to be SAF, compared to the current 3%.

“The interest in SAF is growing, and there is significant potential. However, concrete plans are insufficient. Governments need to implement policies ensuring airlines can purchase SAF in required quantities,” Walsh emphasized.

Potential Policy Measures to Boost SAF Production

To accelerate SAF production, several solutions include:

• Diversifying Feedstocks: Expanding the use of certified pathways and feedstocks (e.g., agricultural and forestry residues, municipal waste) can significantly increase SAF production.
• Co-processing: Utilizing existing refineries to co-process approved renewable feedstocks alongside crude oil can expand SAF production quickly, but consistent policies are needed.
• Improving Output Mix at Renewable Fuel Facilities: Shifting production from renewable diesel to SAF, supported by incentives, can address the growing need for SAF in air transport.
• Boosting Investments in Renewable Fuel Production: Scaling up production of all renewable fuels requires strong policy support, like the US Grand Challenge and $3 billion in investments.

“Incentives to build renewable energy facilities, strengthen the feedstock supply chain, and allocate more renewable fuel to aviation will help decarbonize aviation. Governments can facilitate technical solutions with accelerated approvals for diverse feedstocks and production methods, as well as co-processing in crude oil plants. A combination of policy measures is essential to achieve the necessary SAF production levels,” Walsh said.

Passenger Support

An IATA survey showed strong public support for SAF, with 86% of travelers agreeing that governments should incentivize airlines to use SAF. Additionally, 86% of air passengers believe leading oil corporations should prioritize SAF production.